Marketing attribution provides a level of understanding of what combination of events in what particular order influence individuals to engage in a desired behavior, typically referred to as a conversion. Simple or last-click attribution digital marketing theory pdf widely considered as less accurate than alternative forms of attribution as it fails to account for all contributing factors that led to a desired outcome.
Equal weight models give the same amount of credit to the events, customer credit uses past experience and sometimes simply guesswork to allocate credit, and the multi-touch assigns various credit to across all the touchpoints in the buyer journey at set amounts. Binary classification methods from statistics and machine learning can be used to build appropriate models. An important feature of the modeling approach is estimating the potential outcome of consumers supposing that they were not exposed to an ad. Because marketing is not a controlled experiment, it is helpful to derive potential outcomes in order to understand the true effect of marketing. A marketer is often interested in understanding the ‘base’, or the likelihood that a consumer will convert without being influenced by marketing. This allows the marketer to understand the true effectiveness of the marketing plan. The total number of conversions minus the ‘base’ conversions will give an accurate view of the number of conversions driven by marketing.
The ‘base’ estimate can be approximated using the derived logistic function and using potential outcomes. Once the base is derived, the incremental effect of marketing can be understood to be the lift over the ‘base’ for each ad supposing the others were not seen in the potential outcome. This lift over the base is often used as the weight for that characteristic inside the attribution model. With the weights constructed, the marketer can know the true proportion of conversions driven by different marketing channels or tactics. Interactive Attribution refers to the measurement of digital channels only, while cross-channel attribution refers to the measurement of both online and offline channels. Account based attribution refers to measuring and attributing credit to companies as a whole rather than individual people and is often used in B2B marketing.